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Ellis Guthrie

JM Modern Jiu Jitsu 1776

W–L
4–3
Won and lost rating-eligible matches in the past 12 months.
Gi
1,283
Rating based on Gi matches in the past 12 months.
No-Gi
1,290
Rating based on No-Gi matches in the past 12 months.
Current form
4–3
Results from the ten most recent rating-eligible matches.
Opponents
2
Unique opponents faced in rating-eligible matches in the past 12 months.

Honours

Medals and placements

Gold
1
Silver
3
Bronze
0
Total medals
4
Events with results
1

Full career record

Wins
4
Losses
3
Matches
7
Win rate
57.1%

Ways of winning

Submission
2
Points
2
Decision
0
Disqualification
0

Personal records

Longest winning streak
2
Longest submission streak
1

Recent recorded placements

  1. 2025 AGF Dusseldorf Open

    DE Event record 4–3

    • No Gi Kids Challenger / Boys / Regular Challenger / Feather II (Up to 34.00 kg)
    • Gi Kids Challenger / Boys / Regular Challenger / Feather II (Up to 34.00 kg)
    • Gi Kids / Boys / Pre Teen (10 - 11 yrs) / Yellow / Feather II (Up to 34.00 kg)
    • No Gi Kids / Boys / Pre Teen (10 - 11 yrs) / Yellow / Feather II (Up to 34.00 kg)

12-month performance profile

How the results were achieved

Past 12 months
Current win streak
2
Unique opponents
2
Distinct events
1

Ways of winning

  • Submission 2 50%
  • Points 2 50%
  • Decision 0 0%
  • Other recorded result 0 0%

Gi versus No-Gi

Gi

Rating
1283
Record
2–1
Win rate
67%
Submission share
0%

No-Gi

Rating
1290
Record
2–2
Win rate
50%
Submission share
100%

Win quality

Grouped by pre-match win probability. This provides context and does not award an extra rating bonus.

As underdog 0–0 Less than 35% expected win probability before the match.
Even match 0–0 Between 35% and 65% expected win probability before the match.
As favourite 0–0 More than 65% expected win probability before the match.

Development

Rating and development

The same published rating, supported by trend, opponent strength and evidence quality.

Current rating
1,372
Change over 90 days
-
Highest rating in 12 months
1,371
Performance versus expectation
-
Schedule strength
-
Average opponent rating
1,693
Weighted win rate
-
Expected win rate
-
Repeat-opponent share
71%
Effective evidence
3.3
Confidence
49/100

Opponents

Opposition and rivalries

The strongest recorded win, rematches and opponents faced repeatedly.

Rematches 4–3 4–3 across 7 rematches against 2 repeat opponents.

Top 10 highest-ranked defeated opponents

Past 12 months

  1. #3 Bruce Broekhuizen · 2025 AGF Dusseldorf Open Pts 16–0 Earlier · Pts 11–1 October 18, 2025 · 2025 AGF Dusseldorf Open
  2. #17 Richard Finn Gemmecker · 2025 AGF Dusseldorf Open Sub 01:49 3–0 Earlier · Sub 02:45 9–2 October 18, 2025 · 2025 AGF Dusseldorf Open

Full career

  1. #3 Bruce Broekhuizen · 2025 AGF Dusseldorf Open Pts 16–0 Earlier · Pts 11–1 October 18, 2025 · 2025 AGF Dusseldorf Open
  2. #17 Richard Finn Gemmecker · 2025 AGF Dusseldorf Open Sub 01:49 3–0 Earlier · Sub 02:45 9–2 October 18, 2025 · 2025 AGF Dusseldorf Open

Rivals

Opponent Head-to-head record Matches

Recent tournaments

Calculation details

Rating breakdown for the past 12 months

See the published month-end rating and the rating-eligible matches added in each month. Open a month for details.

August 2026 No new matches Change -1 Rating 1,372

Rating-period composition

Rating matches
7 0
Record
4–3 Previous month 4–3
Opponents
2 0
Events
1 0

No matches were added or left the period. The change comes from the monthly revaluation of opponents across the full network.

July 2026 No new matches Change 0 Rating 1,373

Rating-period composition

Rating matches
7 0
Record
4–3 Previous month 4–3
Opponents
2 0
Events
1 0

No matches were added or left the period. The change comes from the monthly revaluation of opponents across the full network.

June 2026 No new matches Change +2 Rating 1,373

Rating-period composition

Rating matches
7 0
Record
4–3 Previous month 4–3
Opponents
2 0
Events
1 0

No matches were added or left the period. The change comes from the monthly revaluation of opponents across the full network.

May 2026 No new matches Change -2 Rating 1,371

Rating-period composition

Rating matches
7 0
Record
4–3 Previous month 4–3
Opponents
2 0
Events
1 0

No matches were added or left the period. The change comes from the monthly revaluation of opponents across the full network.

April 2026 No new matches Change +1 Rating 1,373

Rating-period composition

Rating matches
7 0
Record
4–3 Previous month 4–3
Opponents
2 0
Events
1 0

No matches were added or left the period. The change comes from the monthly revaluation of opponents across the full network.

March 2026 No new matches Change -2 Rating 1,372

Rating-period composition

Rating matches
7 0
Record
4–3 Previous month 4–3
Opponents
2 0
Events
1 0

No matches were added or left the period. The change comes from the monthly revaluation of opponents across the full network.

February 2026 No new matches Change +2 Rating 1,374

Rating-period composition

Rating matches
7 0
Record
4–3 Previous month 4–3
Opponents
2 0
Events
1 0

No matches were added or left the period. The change comes from the monthly revaluation of opponents across the full network.

January 2026 No new matches Change -1 Rating 1,372

Rating-period composition

Rating matches
7 0
Record
4–3 Previous month 4–3
Opponents
2 0
Events
1 0

No matches were added or left the period. The change comes from the monthly revaluation of opponents across the full network.

December 2025 No new matches Change 0 Rating 1,373

Rating-period composition

Rating matches
7 0
Record
4–3 Previous month 4–3
Opponents
2 0
Events
1 0

No matches were added or left the period. The change comes from the monthly revaluation of opponents across the full network.

November 2025 No new matches Change +2 Rating 1,373

Rating-period composition

Rating matches
7 0
Record
4–3 Previous month 4–3
Opponents
2 0
Events
1 0

No matches were added or left the period. The change comes from the monthly revaluation of opponents across the full network.

October 2025 7 new matches Change Starting point Rating 1,371

New rating matches

This is a current what-if estimate: roughly how much the current rating changes when this match is omitted. These values cannot be added and therefore do not together explain the monthly change.
Win
October 18, 2025 Richard Finn Gemmecker
2025 AGF Dusseldorf Open No Gi Kids / Boys / Pre Teen (10 - 11 yrs) / Yellow / Feather II (Up to 34.00 kg)
Method Submission 01:49 3–0
Marginal influence +25
Loss
October 18, 2025 Bruce Broekhuizen
2025 AGF Dusseldorf Open No Gi Kids / Boys / Pre Teen (10 - 11 yrs) / Yellow / Feather II (Up to 34.00 kg)
Method Points 03:00 2–7
Marginal influence -6
Loss
October 18, 2025 Bruce Broekhuizen
2025 AGF Dusseldorf Open Gi Kids Challenger / Boys / Regular Challenger / Feather II (Up to 34.00 kg)
Method Submission 00:53 0–0
Marginal influence -5
Win
October 18, 2025 Bruce Broekhuizen
2025 AGF Dusseldorf Open Gi Kids / Boys / Pre Teen (10 - 11 yrs) / Yellow / Feather II (Up to 34.00 kg)
Method Points 03:00 16–0
Marginal influence +15
Win
October 18, 2025 Bruce Broekhuizen
2025 AGF Dusseldorf Open Gi Kids / Boys / Pre Teen (10 - 11 yrs) / Yellow / Feather II (Up to 34.00 kg)
Method Points 03:00 11–1
Marginal influence +15
Loss
October 18, 2025 Bruce Broekhuizen
2025 AGF Dusseldorf Open No Gi Kids Challenger / Boys / Regular Challenger / Feather II (Up to 34.00 kg)
Method Decision 03:00 2–2
Marginal influence -6
Win
October 18, 2025 Richard Finn Gemmecker
2025 AGF Dusseldorf Open No Gi Kids Challenger / Boys / Regular Challenger / Feather II (Up to 34.00 kg)
Method Submission 02:45 9–2
Marginal influence +25
Relevant matches
3.3
Official ranking percentile
-
Performance
-

3.3 weighted matches against 2 different opponents across 1 events

Weighted win rate
-
Expected win rate
-
Average opponent rating
1,693
Repeated-opponent share
71.4%
Network connectivity
87.6%

Classification evidence

Why U14?

Within the published period from 2025-09-01 through 2026-08-31, only competition ages recorded at events in the calculation year determine this outcome, with at most one vote per event. Without such an age, the most recent unambiguous earlier competition age is projected to the calculation year; bracket evidence is the final fallback. The newest evidence breaks a tie.

Evidence outcome

  • U14 1 event vote Selected outcome

Registrations and outcomes

2025 AGF Dusseldorf Open
U14 · Counts
Competition T-shirt / Adult Large
No Gi Kids Challenger / Boys / Regular Challenger / Feather II (Up to 34.00 kg)
  • Competition age 11
  • Registered age: u14
  • Source category: u14
No Gi Kids / Boys / Pre Teen (10 - 11 yrs) / Yellow / Feather II (Up to 34.00 kg)
  • Competition age 11
  • Registered age: u12
  • Source category: u12
Gi Kids Challenger / Boys / Regular Challenger / Feather II (Up to 34.00 kg)
  • Competition age 11
  • Registered age: u14
  • Source category: u14
Gi Kids / Boys / Pre Teen (10 - 11 yrs) / Yellow / Feather II (Up to 34.00 kg)
  • Competition age 11
  • Registered age: u12
  • Source category: u12

Classification evidence

Why ≤ 34 kg?

This outcome uses at most one unambiguous upper weight limit per completed ranking event from 2025-09-01 through 2026-08-31. Only the three most recent eligible events are considered, and the lightest verified upper limit is selected. A higher division is not treated as measured body weight.

Evidence outcome

  • ≤ 34 kg 1 competition event Selected outcome

Registrations and outcomes

2025 AGF Dusseldorf Open
Does not count
Competition T-shirt / Adult Large

No matches in the rating period · no valid weight evidence

2025 AGF Dusseldorf Open
≤ 34 kg · Counts as a competition event
No Gi Kids Challenger / Boys / Regular Challenger / Feather II (Up to 34.00 kg)
  • Registered weight class: Feather II (Up to 34.00 kg)
  • Source competition limit: Feather II (Up to 34.00 kg)

2 matches in the rating period

2025 AGF Dusseldorf Open
≤ 34 kg · Counts as a competition event
No Gi Kids / Boys / Pre Teen (10 - 11 yrs) / Yellow / Feather II (Up to 34.00 kg)
  • Registered weight class: Feather II (Up to 34.00 kg)
  • Source competition limit: Feather II (Up to 34.00 kg)

2 matches in the rating period

2025 AGF Dusseldorf Open
≤ 34 kg · Counts as a competition event
Gi Kids Challenger / Boys / Regular Challenger / Feather II (Up to 34.00 kg)
  • Registered weight class: Feather II (Up to 34.00 kg)
  • Source competition limit: Feather II (Up to 34.00 kg)

1 match in the rating period

2025 AGF Dusseldorf Open
≤ 34 kg · Counts as a competition event
Gi Kids / Boys / Pre Teen (10 - 11 yrs) / Yellow / Feather II (Up to 34.00 kg)
  • Registered weight class: Feather II (Up to 34.00 kg)
  • Source competition limit: Feather II (Up to 34.00 kg)

2 matches in the rating period

Classification evidence

Why Yellow?

This outcome uses the belt category of every rating-eligible match from 2025-09-01 through 2026-08-31. The most-fought category is selected; the newest evidence breaks a tie.

Evidence outcome

  • yellow 4 matches in the rating period Selected outcome

Registrations and outcomes

2025 AGF Dusseldorf Open
yellow · Counts as a match
Gi Kids / Boys / Pre Teen (10 - 11 yrs) / Yellow / Feather II (Up to 34.00 kg)
  • Source belt category: yellow

2 matches in the rating period

2025 AGF Dusseldorf Open
yellow · Counts as a match
No Gi Kids / Boys / Pre Teen (10 - 11 yrs) / Yellow / Feather II (Up to 34.00 kg)
  • Source belt category: yellow

2 matches in the rating period