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LU

Lucas Machado

Fabricio Ribeiro Team

W–L
6–9
Won and lost rating-eligible matches in the past 12 months.
Gi
1,298
Rating based on Gi matches in the past 12 months.
No-Gi
1,153
Rating based on No-Gi matches in the past 12 months.
Current form
5–5
Results from the ten most recent rating-eligible matches.
Opponents
12
Unique opponents faced in rating-eligible matches in the past 12 months.

Honours

Medals and placements

Gold
2
Silver
0
Bronze
1
Total medals
3
Events with results
4

Full career record

Wins
7
Losses
9
Matches
16
Win rate
43.8%

Ways of winning

Submission
2
Points
2
Decision
1
Disqualification
1

Personal records

Longest winning streak
3
Longest submission streak
1
Longest gold streak
1

Recent recorded placements

12-month performance profile

How the results were achieved

Past 12 months
Current win streak
1
Unique opponents
12
Distinct events
4

Ways of winning

  • Submission 2 33%
  • Points 2 33%
  • Decision 1 17%
  • Other recorded result 1 17%

Gi versus No-Gi

Gi

Rating
1298
Record
5–5
Win rate
50%
Submission share
20%

No-Gi

Rating
1153
Record
1–4
Win rate
20%
Submission share
100%

Win quality

Grouped by pre-match win probability. This provides context and does not award an extra rating bonus.

As underdog 0–0 Less than 35% expected win probability before the match.
Even match 0–0 Between 35% and 65% expected win probability before the match.
As favourite 0–0 More than 65% expected win probability before the match.

Development

Rating and development

The same published rating, supported by trend, opponent strength and evidence quality.

Current rating
1,312
Change over 90 days
+98
Highest rating in 12 months
1,307
Performance versus expectation
-4.9 pp
Schedule strength
Top 67%
Average opponent rating
1,298
Weighted win rate
42%
Expected win rate
47%
Repeat-opponent share
20%
Effective evidence
11.8
Confidence
94/100

Opponents

Opposition and rivalries

The strongest recorded win, rematches and opponents faced repeatedly.

Rematches 3–3 3–3 across 6 rematches against 3 repeat opponents.

Rivals

Opponent Head-to-head record Matches
Gaëtan Kanza 0–2 2
Sverre Adrian 2–0 2

Recent tournaments

Calculation details

Rating breakdown for the past 12 months

See the published month-end rating and the rating-eligible matches added in each month. Open a month for details.

August 2026 No new matches Change 0 Rating 1,312

Rating-period composition

Rating matches
15 0
Record
6–9 Previous month 6–9
Opponents
12 0
Events
4 0

No matches were added or left the period. The change comes from the monthly revaluation of opponents across the full network.

July 2026 No new matches Change +1 Rating 1,312

Rating-period composition

Rating matches
15 0
Record
6–9 Previous month 6–9
Opponents
12 0
Events
4 0

No matches were added or left the period. The change comes from the monthly revaluation of opponents across the full network.

June 2026 No new matches Change +4 Rating 1,311

Rating-period composition

Rating matches
15 0
Record
6–9 Previous month 6–9
Opponents
12 0
Events
4 0

No matches were added or left the period. The change comes from the monthly revaluation of opponents across the full network.

May 2026 5 new matches Change +51 Rating 1,307

Rating-period composition

Rating matches
15 +5
Record
6–9 Previous month 3–7
Opponents
12 +3
Events
4 +1

New rating matches

This is a current what-if estimate: roughly how much the current rating changes when this match is omitted. These values cannot be added and therefore do not together explain the monthly change.
Win
May 3, 2026 Sverre Adrian
Grappling Industries AMSTERDAM No Gi Kids / 16 - 17 years (Male) / Beginner (White) / -155 lbs
Method Submission 03:48 5–0
Marginal influence +7
Loss
May 3, 2026 Takuya Mizerakis
Grappling Industries AMSTERDAM No Gi Kids / 16 - 17 years (Male) / Beginner (White) / -155 lbs
Method Points 04:00 0–7
Marginal influence -10
Win
May 3, 2026 Takuya Mizerakis
Grappling Industries AMSTERDAM Gi Kids / 16 - 17 years (Male) / White / -155 lbs
Method Points 04:00 8–3
Marginal influence +17
Loss
May 3, 2026 Berat Yaman
Grappling Industries AMSTERDAM Gi Kids / 16 - 17 years (Male) / White / -155 lbs
Method Points 04:00 0–3
Marginal influence -11
Win
May 3, 2026 Sverre Adrian
Grappling Industries AMSTERDAM Gi Kids / 16 - 17 years (Male) / White / -155 lbs
Method Decision 04:00 0–0
Marginal influence +17
April 2026 1 new match Change +28 Rating 1,256

Rating-period composition

Rating matches
10 +1
Record
3–7 Previous month 2–7
Opponents
9 +1
Events
3 +1

New rating matches

This is a current what-if estimate: roughly how much the current rating changes when this match is omitted. These values cannot be added and therefore do not together explain the monthly change.
Win
April 5, 2026 Gomes-Bonnet Ysen
GrappleCity: Luxembourg Spring Open Teens Gi / White / 16-17 years / -75kg / Boy
Method Disqualification 01:54 0–0
Marginal influence +15
March 2026 No new matches Change +4 Rating 1,228

Rating-period composition

Rating matches
9 0
Record
2–7 Previous month 2–7
Opponents
8 0
Events
2 0

No matches were added or left the period. The change comes from the monthly revaluation of opponents across the full network.

February 2026 2 new matches Change +15 Rating 1,224

Rating-period composition

Rating matches
9 +2
Record
2–7 Previous month 1–6
Opponents
8 +2
Events
2 +1

New rating matches

This is a current what-if estimate: roughly how much the current rating changes when this match is omitted. These values cannot be added and therefore do not together explain the monthly change.
Win
February 28, 2026 Ben Reinisch
2026 AGF Dusseldorf Championships Gi Juveniles - Adults / Male / Juvenile / White / Light (Up to 79.40 kg)
Method Points 05:00 5–2
Marginal influence +19
Loss
February 28, 2026 Leandro Barrios
2026 AGF Dusseldorf Championships Gi Juveniles - Adults / Male / Juvenile / White / Light (Up to 79.40 kg)
Method Points 05:00 4–9
Marginal influence -16
January 2026 No new matches Change 0 Rating 1,209

Rating-period composition

Rating matches
7 0
Record
1–6 Previous month 1–6
Opponents
6 0
Events
1 0

No matches were added or left the period. The change comes from the monthly revaluation of opponents across the full network.

December 2025 No new matches Change 0 Rating 1,209

Rating-period composition

Rating matches
7 0
Record
1–6 Previous month 1–6
Opponents
6 0
Events
1 0

No matches were added or left the period. The change comes from the monthly revaluation of opponents across the full network.

November 2025 7 new matches Change Starting point Rating 1,209

New rating matches

This is a current what-if estimate: roughly how much the current rating changes when this match is omitted. These values cannot be added and therefore do not together explain the monthly change.
Loss
November 29, 2025 Revan Abdo
Grappling Industries BRUSSELS No Gi Teens / Male / Beginner (White) / 16 - 17 years / -170 lbs
Method Submission 03:04 0–10
Marginal influence -12
Loss
November 29, 2025 Arno Kieckens
Grappling Industries BRUSSELS No Gi Teens / Male / Beginner (White) / 16 - 17 years / -170 lbs
Method Submission 01:22 0–3
Marginal influence -12
Loss
November 29, 2025 Gaëtan Kanza
Grappling Industries BRUSSELS No Gi Teens / Male / Beginner (White) / 16 - 17 years / -170 lbs
Method Points 04:00 0–2
Marginal influence -11
Loss
November 29, 2025 Gaëtan Kanza
Grappling Industries BRUSSELS Gi Teens / Male / White / 16 - 17 years / -170 lbs
Method Points 04:00 0–11
Marginal influence -6
Loss
November 29, 2025 Samy Abdelfettah
Grappling Industries BRUSSELS Gi Teens / Male / White / 16 - 17 years / -170 lbs
Method Points 04:00 0–12
Marginal influence -16
Win
November 29, 2025 Jonathan Iloko
Grappling Industries BRUSSELS Gi Teens / Male / White / 16 - 17 years / -170 lbs
Method Submission 01:43 2–0
Marginal influence +12
Loss
November 29, 2025 Diego Ocando
Grappling Industries BRUSSELS Gi Teens / Male / White / 16 - 17 years / -170 lbs
Method Points 04:00 0–18
Marginal influence -9
Relevant matches
11.8
Official ranking percentile
-
Performance
4.9 pp below expectation

11.8 weighted matches against 12 different opponents across 4 events

Weighted win rate
42.0%
Expected win rate
46.9%
Average opponent rating
1,298
Repeated-opponent share
20.0%
Network connectivity
87.6%

Classification evidence

Why U18?

Within the published period from 2025-09-01 through 2026-08-31, only competition ages recorded at events in the calculation year determine this outcome, with at most one vote per event. Without such an age, the most recent unambiguous earlier competition age is projected to the calculation year; bracket evidence is the final fallback. The newest evidence breaks a tie.

Evidence outcome

  • U18 4 event votes Selected outcome

Registrations and outcomes

Grappling Industries AMSTERDAM
U18 · Counts
No Gi Kids / 16 - 17 years (Male) / Beginner (White) / -155 lbs
  • Competition age 17
  • Registered age: u18
  • Source category: u18
Gi Kids / 16 - 17 years (Male) / White / -155 lbs
  • Competition age 17
  • Registered age: u18
  • Source category: u18
NAGA Brussels Grappling Championship
U18 · Counts
Teens Gi (Male) / Novice / 70 - 74.9 / 16-17 years
  • Competition age 17
  • Registered age: u18
  • Source category: u18
Teens No-Gi (Male) / Novice / 70 - 74.9 / 16-17 years
  • Competition age 17
  • Registered age: u18
  • Source category: u18
GrappleCity: Luxembourg Spring Open
U18 · Counts
Teens NoGi / White / 16-17 years / -75kg / Boy
  • Competition age 17
  • Registered age: u18
  • Source category: u18
Teens Gi / White / 16-17 years / -75kg / Boy
  • Competition age 17
  • Registered age: u18
  • Source category: u18
2026 AGF Dusseldorf Championships
U18 · Counts
Gi Juveniles - Adults / Male / Juvenile / White / Light (Up to 79.40 kg)
  • Competition age 17
  • Registered age: u18
  • Source category: u18
No Gi Juveniles - Adults / Male / Juvenile / White / Light (Up to 79.40 kg)
  • Competition age 17
COLOGNE WINTER OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP 2026 I EUROPEAN CUP
Does not count
Male Gi (over 16 y.o.) / White / Youth (16-17y.o.) / -77,00 kg
  • Competition age 17
Male No-Gi (over 16 y.o.) / White / Youth No-Gi / -77,00 kg
  • Competition age 17
Grappling Industries BRUSSELS
Does not count
No Gi Teens / Male / Beginner (White) / 16 - 17 years / -170 lbs
  • Competition age 16
  • Registered age: u18
  • Source category: u18
Gi Teens / Male / White / 16 - 17 years / -170 lbs
  • Competition age 16
  • Registered age: u18
  • Source category: u18

Classification evidence

Why ≤ 70 kg?

This outcome uses at most one unambiguous upper weight limit per completed ranking event from 2025-09-01 through 2026-08-31. Only the three most recent eligible events are considered, and the lightest verified upper limit is selected. A higher division is not treated as measured body weight.

Evidence outcome

  • ≤ 70 kg 1 competition event Selected outcome
  • ≤ 75 kg 1 competition event
  • ≤ 79 kg 1 competition event

Registrations and outcomes

Grappling Industries AMSTERDAM
≤ 70 kg · Counts as a competition event
No Gi Kids / 16 - 17 years (Male) / Beginner (White) / -155 lbs
  • Registered weight class: -155 lbs
  • Source competition limit: -155 lbs

2 matches in the rating period

Grappling Industries AMSTERDAM
≤ 70 kg · Counts as a competition event
Gi Kids / 16 - 17 years (Male) / White / -155 lbs
  • Registered weight class: -155 lbs
  • Source competition limit: -155 lbs

3 matches in the rating period

NAGA Brussels Grappling Championship
Does not count
Teens Gi (Male) / Novice / 70 - 74.9 / 16-17 years
  • Registered weight class: 70 - 74.9
  • Source competition limit: 70 - 74.9

No matches in the rating period · no valid weight evidence

NAGA Brussels Grappling Championship
Does not count
Teens No-Gi (Male) / Novice / 70 - 74.9 / 16-17 years
  • Registered weight class: 70 - 74.9
  • Source competition limit: 70 - 74.9

No matches in the rating period · no valid weight evidence

GrappleCity: Luxembourg Spring Open
Does not count
Teens NoGi / White / 16-17 years / -75kg / Boy
  • Registered weight class: -75kg
  • Source competition limit: -75kg

No matches in the rating period · no valid weight evidence

GrappleCity: Luxembourg Spring Open
≤ 75 kg · Counts as a competition event
Teens Gi / White / 16-17 years / -75kg / Boy
  • Registered weight class: -75kg
  • Source competition limit: -75kg

1 match in the rating period

2026 AGF Dusseldorf Championships
≤ 79 kg · Counts as a competition event
Gi Juveniles - Adults / Male / Juvenile / White / Light (Up to 79.40 kg)
  • Registered weight class: Light (Up to 79.40 kg)
  • Source competition limit: Light (Up to 79.40 kg)

2 matches in the rating period

2026 AGF Dusseldorf Championships
Does not count
No Gi Juveniles - Adults / Male / Juvenile / White / Light (Up to 79.40 kg)
  • Registered weight class: Light (Up to 79.40 kg)
  • Source competition limit: Light (Up to 79.40 kg)

No matches in the rating period · no valid weight evidence

COLOGNE WINTER OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP 2026 I EUROPEAN CUP
Does not count
Male Gi (over 16 y.o.) / White / Youth (16-17y.o.) / -77,00 kg
  • Registered weight class: -77,00 kg
  • Source competition limit: -77,00 kg

No matches in the rating period · no valid weight evidence

COLOGNE WINTER OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP 2026 I EUROPEAN CUP
Does not count
Male No-Gi (over 16 y.o.) / White / Youth No-Gi / -77,00 kg
  • Registered weight class: -77,00 kg
  • Source competition limit: -77,00 kg

No matches in the rating period · no valid weight evidence

Grappling Industries BRUSSELS
≤ 77 kg · Does not count
No Gi Teens / Male / Beginner (White) / 16 - 17 years / -170 lbs
  • Registered weight class: -170 lbs
  • Source competition limit: -170 lbs

3 matches in the rating period · outside the three most recent unambiguous events

Grappling Industries BRUSSELS
≤ 77 kg · Does not count
Gi Teens / Male / White / 16 - 17 years / -170 lbs
  • Registered weight class: -170 lbs
  • Source competition limit: -170 lbs

4 matches in the rating period · outside the three most recent unambiguous events

Classification evidence

Why White?

This outcome uses the belt category of every rating-eligible match from 2025-09-01 through 2026-08-31. The most-fought category is selected; the newest evidence breaks a tie.

Evidence outcome

  • white 15 matches in the rating period Selected outcome

Registrations and outcomes

Grappling Industries AMSTERDAM
white · Counts as a match
No Gi Kids / 16 - 17 years (Male) / Beginner (White) / -155 lbs
  • Source belt category: white

2 matches in the rating period

Grappling Industries AMSTERDAM
white · Counts as a match
Gi Kids / 16 - 17 years (Male) / White / -155 lbs
  • Source belt category: white

3 matches in the rating period

GrappleCity: Luxembourg Spring Open
white · Counts as a match
Teens Gi / White / 16-17 years / -75kg / Boy
  • Source belt category: white

1 match in the rating period

2026 AGF Dusseldorf Championships
white · Counts as a match
Gi Juveniles - Adults / Male / Juvenile / White / Light (Up to 79.40 kg)
  • Source belt category: white

2 matches in the rating period

Grappling Industries BRUSSELS
white · Counts as a match
No Gi Teens / Male / Beginner (White) / 16 - 17 years / -170 lbs
  • Source belt category: white

3 matches in the rating period

Grappling Industries BRUSSELS
white · Counts as a match
Gi Teens / Male / White / 16 - 17 years / -170 lbs
  • Source belt category: white

4 matches in the rating period