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Manuel Carrera

LAVICA PROJECT - Sicilia

W–L
5–1
Won and lost rating-eligible matches in the past 12 months.
Gi
1,391
Rating based on Gi matches in the past 12 months.
No-Gi
-
Rating based on No-Gi matches in the past 12 months.
Current form
5–1
Results from the ten most recent rating-eligible matches.
Opponents
6
Unique opponents faced in rating-eligible matches in the past 12 months.

Honours

Medals and placements

Gold
2
Silver
1
Bronze
1
Total medals
4
Events with results
4

Full career record

Wins
7
Losses
2
Matches
9
Win rate
77.8%

Ways of winning

Submission
2
Points
5
Decision
0
Disqualification
0

Personal records

Longest winning streak
4
Longest submission streak
1
Longest gold streak
1
Largest recorded points win
7–0

Recent recorded placements

  3. Kuma Challenge

    IT Event record 2–0

    • Boys Gi / White / Pee Wee III - Junior I (9-10yrs) / -39,50 kg

12-month performance profile

How the results were achieved

Past 12 months
Current win streak
2
Unique opponents
6
Distinct events
3

Ways of winning

  • Submission 2 40%
  • Points 3 60%
  • Decision 0 0%
  • Other recorded result 0 0%

Gi versus No-Gi

Gi

Rating
1391
Record
5–1
Win rate
83%
Submission share
40%

No-Gi

Rating
-
Record
-
Win rate
-
Submission share
-

Win quality

Grouped by pre-match win probability. This provides context and does not award an extra rating bonus.

As underdog 0–0 Less than 35% expected win probability before the match.
Even match 0–0 Between 35% and 65% expected win probability before the match.
As favourite 0–0 More than 65% expected win probability before the match.

Development

Rating and development

The same published rating, supported by trend, opponent strength and evidence quality.

Current rating
1,391
Change over 90 days
+89
Highest rating in 12 months
1,391
Performance versus expectation
+18.1 pp
Schedule strength
Top 94%
Average opponent rating
1,237
Weighted win rate
85%
Expected win rate
67%
Repeat-opponent share
0%
Effective evidence
5
Confidence
70/100

Opponents

Opposition and rivalries

The strongest recorded win, rematches and opponents faced repeatedly.

Rematches 0–2 0–2 across 2 rematches against 1 repeat opponents.

Top 10 highest-ranked defeated opponents

Past 12 months

  1. #2053 Alessio Fecarotta · Tirreno Open Championship 2026 Pts 7–0

Full career

  1. #2053 Alessio Fecarotta · Tirreno Open Championship 2026 Pts 7–0

Rivals

Opponent Head-to-head record Matches

Around this athlete

Athlete Rank Rating
Aiden Van Der Steen #898 1,391
Manuel Carrera #899 1,391
Sergei Kovalev #900 1,391

Recent tournaments

Calculation details

Rating breakdown for the past 12 months

See the published month-end rating and the rating-eligible matches added in each month. Open a month for details.

August 2026 No new matches Change 0 Rating 1,391

Rating-period composition

Rating matches
6 0
Record
5–1 Previous month 5–1
Opponents
6 0
Events
3 0

No matches were added or left the period. The change comes from the monthly revaluation of opponents across the full network.

July 2026 No new matches Change 0 Rating 1,391

Rating-period composition

Rating matches
6 0
Record
5–1 Previous month 5–1
Opponents
6 0
Events
3 0

No matches were added or left the period. The change comes from the monthly revaluation of opponents across the full network.

June 2026 2 new matches Change +66 Rating 1,391

Rating-period composition

Rating matches
6 +2
Record
5–1 Previous month 3–1
Opponents
6 +2
Events
3 +1

New rating matches

This is a current what-if estimate: roughly how much the current rating changes when this match is omitted. These values cannot be added and therefore do not together explain the monthly change.
Win
June 14, 2026 Alessio Fecarotta
Tirreno Open Championship 2026 Boys Gi / Colored belt / Junior II (11yrs) / -39,50 kg
Method Points 04:00 7–0
Marginal influence +25
Win
June 14, 2026 DAVIDE Di Stefano
Tirreno Open Championship 2026 Boys Gi / Colored belt / Junior II (11yrs) / -39,50 kg
Method Submission 00:50 8–0
Marginal influence +14
May 2026 2 new matches Change +30 Rating 1,325

Rating-period composition

Rating matches
4 +2
Record
3–1 Previous month 2–0
Opponents
4 +2
Events
2 +1

New rating matches

This is a current what-if estimate: roughly how much the current rating changes when this match is omitted. These values cannot be added and therefore do not together explain the monthly change.
Loss
SJJC 2026 - BJJ Gi & No-Gi - MSP SICILIA Boys BJJ Gi / U12 / -40 kg / Colored
Method Submission 02:24 2–2
Marginal influence -29
Win
May 3, 2026 Gabriele Mendola
SJJC 2026 - BJJ Gi & No-Gi - MSP SICILIA Boys BJJ Gi / U12 / -40 kg / Colored
Method Points 03:00 7–0
Marginal influence +26
April 2026 No new matches Change 0 Rating 1,295

Rating-period composition

Rating matches
2 0
Record
2–0 Previous month 2–0
Opponents
2 0
Events
1 0

No matches were added or left the period. The change comes from the monthly revaluation of opponents across the full network.

March 2026 No new matches Change 0 Rating 1,295

Rating-period composition

Rating matches
2 0
Record
2–0 Previous month 2–0
Opponents
2 0
Events
1 0

No matches were added or left the period. The change comes from the monthly revaluation of opponents across the full network.

February 2026 No new matches Change 0 Rating 1,295

Rating-period composition

Rating matches
2 0
Record
2–0 Previous month 2–0
Opponents
2 0
Events
1 0

No matches were added or left the period. The change comes from the monthly revaluation of opponents across the full network.

January 2026 No new matches Change 0 Rating 1,295

Rating-period composition

Rating matches
2 0
Record
2–0 Previous month 2–0
Opponents
2 0
Events
1 0

No matches were added or left the period. The change comes from the monthly revaluation of opponents across the full network.

December 2025 No new matches Change -7 Rating 1,295

Rating-period composition

Rating matches
2 0
Record
2–0 Previous month 2–0
Opponents
2 0
Events
1 0

No matches were added or left the period. The change comes from the monthly revaluation of opponents across the full network.

November 2025 2 new matches Change Starting point Rating 1,302

New rating matches

This is a current what-if estimate: roughly how much the current rating changes when this match is omitted. These values cannot be added and therefore do not together explain the monthly change.
Win
November 23, 2025 Gabriele Mendola
Kuma Challenge Boys Gi / White / Pee Wee III - Junior I (9-10yrs) / -39,50 kg
Method Points 04:00 11–4
Marginal influence +22
Win
November 23, 2025 Gabriele Diliberto
Kuma Challenge Boys Gi / White / Pee Wee III - Junior I (9-10yrs) / -39,50 kg
Method Submission 00:30 6–0
Marginal influence +17
Relevant matches
5
Official ranking percentile
Top 30%
Performance
18.1 pp above expectation

5 weighted matches against 6 different opponents across 3 events

Weighted win rate
84.7%
Expected win rate
66.6%
Average opponent rating
1,237
Repeated-opponent share
0.0%
Network connectivity
80.9%

Classification evidence

Why U12?

Within the published period from 2025-09-01 through 2026-08-31, only competition ages recorded at events in the calculation year determine this outcome, with at most one vote per event. Without such an age, the most recent unambiguous earlier competition age is projected to the calculation year; bracket evidence is the final fallback. The newest evidence breaks a tie.

Evidence outcome

  • U12 2 event votes Selected outcome

Registrations and outcomes

Tirreno Open Championship 2026
U12 · Counts
Boys Gi / Colored belt / Junior II (11yrs) / -39,50 kg
  • Competition age 11
  • Registered age: u12
  • Source category: u12
SJJC 2026 - BJJ Gi & No-Gi - MSP SICILIA
U12 · Counts
Boys BJJ Gi / U12 / -40 kg / Colored
  • Competition age 11
  • Registered age: u12
  • Source category: u12
Kuma Challenge
Does not count
Boys Gi / White / Pee Wee III - Junior I (9-10yrs) / -39,50 kg
  • Competition age 10
  • Registered age: u12
  • Source category: u12

Classification evidence

Why ≤ 40 kg?

This outcome uses at most one unambiguous upper weight limit per completed ranking event from 2025-09-01 through 2026-08-31. Only the three most recent eligible events are considered, and the lightest verified upper limit is selected. A higher division is not treated as measured body weight.

Evidence outcome

  • ≤ 40 kg 3 competition events Selected outcome

Registrations and outcomes

Tirreno Open Championship 2026
≤ 40 kg · Counts as a competition event
Boys Gi / Colored belt / Junior II (11yrs) / -39,50 kg
  • Registered weight class: -39,50 kg
  • Source competition limit: -39,50 kg

2 matches in the rating period

SJJC 2026 - BJJ Gi & No-Gi - MSP SICILIA
≤ 40 kg · Counts as a competition event
Boys BJJ Gi / U12 / -40 kg / Colored
  • Registered weight class: -40 kg
  • Source competition limit: -40 kg

2 matches in the rating period

Kuma Challenge
≤ 40 kg · Counts as a competition event
Boys Gi / White / Pee Wee III - Junior I (9-10yrs) / -39,50 kg
  • Registered weight class: -39,50 kg
  • Source competition limit: -39,50 kg

2 matches in the rating period

Classification evidence

Why White?

This outcome uses the belt category of every rating-eligible match from 2025-09-01 through 2026-08-31. The most-fought category is selected; the newest evidence breaks a tie.

Evidence outcome

  • white 2 matches in the rating period Selected outcome

Registrations and outcomes

Kuma Challenge
white · Counts as a match
Boys Gi / White / Pee Wee III - Junior I (9-10yrs) / -39,50 kg
  • Source belt category: white

2 matches in the rating period